Graphite electrode market analysis
Price: In late July 2021, the graphite electrode market has entered a downward channel, and the price of graphite electrodes has gradually decreased, with a total decrease of approximately 8.97%. Mainly due to the increase in the overall supply of the graphite electrode market, the introduction of the policy of suppressing the production of crude steel, and the superposition of high-temperature power curtailment measures in various places, the overall operation of the downstream steel plants of the graphite electrode is generally underway, and the enthusiasm for the purchase of graphite electrodes has weakened. In addition, some small and medium-sized graphite electrode companies and individual graphite electrode companies with active early production and large corporate inventories have cut prices in order to increase shipments, resulting in a decline in the overall price of the graphite electrode market. As of August 23, 2021, the price of China’s ultra-high power 300-700mm graphite electrodes is between 17,500 and 30,000 yuan/ton, and there are still some orders whose prices are lower than the market price.
In terms of cost and profit: From the perspective of cost, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke, the upstream raw material of graphite electrodes, maintains an upward trend. Compared with the low price in the first half of the year, the price has increased by 850-1200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 37%, and 29 compared with the beginning of 2021. The price of needle coke was stable at a high level, and the price increased by about 54% compared with the beginning of the year; the price of coal tar pitch fluctuated slightly at a high level, and the price of graphite electrode upstream raw materials was at a high level.
In addition, the processing costs of graphite electrode roasting and graphitization have also risen recently. It is understood that the power limit in Inner Mongolia has been strengthened recently, and the power restriction policy and the price of graphitization of anode materials have increased, and the price of graphitization of graphite electrodes may continue to rise. It can be seen that the cost of graphite electrodes is relatively high.
In terms of profit, the price of graphite electrodes has increased by about 31% compared with the price of early 2021, which is much smaller than the increase in raw material prices. The pressure on the production cost of graphite electrodes is high, and the price of superimposed graphite electrodes has fallen, and the overall profit of the graphite electrode market has been squeezed. Moreover, it is understood that some small and medium-sized graphite electrode companies or companies with a large inventory of graphite electrodes guarantee shipments, and the transaction prices of some orders are already near the cost line, and the overall profit of the graphite electrode market is insufficient.
In terms of production: In the near future, mainstream graphite electrode companies have basically maintained their normal production status. Some graphite electrode companies have been affected by general terminal demand and high costs in the near future, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. It is reported that some graphite electrode companies have plans to reduce production in the second half of the year, and it is expected that there is a reduction in the supply side of the graphite electrode market.
In terms of shipments: The graphite electrode market has been generally shipped recently. According to some graphite electrode companies, the company’s shipments have slowed down since late July. On the one hand, due to the policy guidelines for reducing crude steel production in the second half of 2021 and the restrictions on environmental protection power curtailment measures, the converter steelmaking restrictions are more obvious, and the purchase of ultra-high power graphite electrodes, especially ultra-high power and small specifications, by steel mills has slowed; on the other hand; , Some steel mills downstream of graphite electrodes have inventory of graphite electrodes for about two months, and steel mills temporarily consume inventory. The graphite electrode market has an obvious wait-and-see sentiment, with few market transactions and average shipments of enterprises.
In terms of electric furnace steel, affected by factors such as the low season of the steel market, the narrowing of the scrap gap, and the limited profit of electric furnace steel, the enthusiasm for production of electric furnace steel plants is relatively ordinary, and steel plants just need to purchase mainly.
Graphite electrode export analysis
According to customs statistics, China’s graphite electrode export volume in July 2021 was 32,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.76% and a year-on-year increase of 62.76%; China’s total export of graphite electrodes from January to July 2021 was 247,600 Tons, an increase of 36.68% year-on-year. The main export countries of China’s graphite electrodes in July 2021: Russia, Italy, and Turkey.
According to feedback from graphite electrode companies, the export of graphite electrodes has been blocked due to the recent epidemic. Recently, the freight rate of export ships has increased by multiples, and export ships are hard to find. There is a shortage of port containers. The export of graphite electrodes to the port and the delivery of goods after reaching the destination country are hindered. Some graphite electrode companies consider export costs to be sold in neighboring countries or to domestic sales. Some graphite electrode companies that export by rail express that they are less affected and their exports are normal.
In the short term, the graphite electrode market is in a situation where the supply exceeds the demand, and is restricted by power restrictions and production pressure. In the short term, the demand for graphite electrodes is unlikely to rebound significantly. Electrode companies still have the willingness to stabilize prices. On the whole, it is expected that graphite electrodes will maintain stable and weak operations. As the downstream steel mills and graphite electrode companies have exhausted their inventories, coupled with the expectation of stocks and declines on the supply side of the graphite electrode market, the price of graphite electrodes will rebound rapidly.
Post time: Aug-26-2021